Land Use Forecast
Master plan of city gives information about proposed land use, proposed future population density, growth corridors, population forecast and other details about city.
Input Requirement |
Data Source |
Remarks/Design criteria |
Proposed land use, proposed future population density, growth corridors |
City Master Plan |
Population forecast
City Population Forecast
For forecasting future population, para 1.5.1 Manual, describes methods such as arithmatic Increase, incremental increase, geomatrical Increase, graphical method based on single city and the method based on cities with similar growth pattern ,decreasing rate of growth,logistic /S- curve, Similar town growth, CAGR, death birth method, density method etc. Previous decadal population from 1901 and onwards are available in census book. These form base for future growth. A typical population forecast axle sheet can be used to determine future estimate of population by putting previous population figures .
Input Requirement |
Data Source |
Remarks/Design criteria |
Previous decadal census population, Population forecast in Master Plan, regional Plan and in other reports |
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Ward wise population are available in census. However the problem is that in some cities ward have been demarketed after 2001 census and as such in that case census population of wards does not serve any purpose. Also past decadal population of wards are not available as ward boundaries are changing too frequently. The ward wise population and ward area can be taken from census if ward boundaries have not changed. In case of change in ward boundary take ward population from ULB and also take a ward map from ULB and get area of each ward from this map. Work out population density of ward from above data. Future population density if given in Master Plan for different areas then those can be adopted. Intermediate population densities should be suitably assumed. If population densities are not given in Master Plan then the planner has to assume some maximum density and growth of wards such that presently high density ward grows at low rate as it is saturating and presently low density wards grow at faster rate.
Input Requirement |
Data Source |
Remarks/Design criteria |
Ward area, ward population
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Census book if ward areas same as in 2001. If ward boundaries are changed after 2001 then ward map and ward population be taken from ULB |
Population outside Municipal area
Out of the total population of city worked out above the population in municipal area is subtracted. The remaining population is assigned to area outsde municipality. Area out side can be worked out from Map. The population density for outside area can be taken uniformly by dividing population by area or if more information is available then population density in outside area can be assumed in different segments and population for segments is worked out.